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32. ‘Continued; “) __CLASSIFIED_MESSAGE » PAGE 3 CFehe CRG: ) i at unt serercert| Qo oar. Bi TST DATE = it ish to From: DIRECTOR : cont: : DEFERRED . ROUTINE : INFO: cuT 7u80 10 INFO cme or §—- 37228 -3- WILL CONTINUE TO DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE SOVIET ESTIMATE AS TO WHETHER THEY COULD BE INTRODUCED WITHOUT PROVOKING AUS MILITARY REACTION. : : — dR THE SOVIET UNION COULD DERIVE CONSIDERABLE MILITARY ADVANTAGE FROM THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SOVIET MEDIUM AND INTERMEDIATE RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES IN CUBA, oR FROM THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SOVIET SUBMARINE BASE THERE. AS BETWEEN . THESE TWO, THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SUB BASE COULD BE MORE LIKELY. EITHER DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, WOULD BE INCOMPATIBLE WITH SOVIET PRACTICE TO DATE AND WITH SOVIET POLICY AS WE PRESENTLY ESTIMATE IP. IT WOULD INDICATE A FAR GREATER WILLINGNESS TO INCREASE THE LEVEL OF RISK IN US-SOVIET RELATIONS THAN THE SOVIET UNION HAS DISPLAYED THUS FAR, AND CONSEQUENTLY WOULD HAVE IMPORTANT i POLICY IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO OTHER AREAS AND OTHER PROBLEMS IN EAST-WEST RELATIONS. COQEDINATING OFFicers RELEASING OFFICER AUTHENTICATING OFFICER REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHISITED. Copy No. 89