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(b) Our High Commissioners think that Australia and New Zealand, perhaps Sierra Leone, Fiji, Tonga and Papua New Guinea, would support us publicly in our attempts to prevent President Amin's attendance! including the refusal of entry to the country, and that some ten others would probably tacitly support us, provided no opposing band wagon developed. (o) No major African, Asian or Caribbean Government is ready to take a public lead against President Aminj nearly all would follow an Afro-Asian consensus. This is thought to apply to Canada also. (d) No Head of Government thinks there is anything he could do personally to influence President Amin. (fc) Zambia thinks the best deterrent would be to say that we could not guarantee his safety. (This, however, might be regarded by him as a threat and his reaction (eg in treating the British community as hostages) could be dangerous.) The Consequences of Attendance 6. The consequences of our allowing President Amin to attend havr> A been set out in the Private Secretary's letter to No 10 dated '»• *• February. Briefly, they are that public and Parliamentary opposition to his attendance would be intense; there could well be demonntraH on« and disorders, and perhaps even attempts on his person; he would command the attention of the media, and the issues raised by his presence could cause disruption of the CHGM itself. In the CHGM, he would be likely to distract attention from serious issues; and if he were to be seriously embarrassed or attacked, there could be unfortunate repercussions for the British community in Uganda# The Present Situation 7» The present situation can thus be summarised as follows. (a) We have so far been careful not to commit ourselves in public, except insofar as we have explained the normal custom in regard to attendance at Meetings. (b) The hostility expressed in Parliament and the preoe does not seem to have had any deterrent effect. Indeed, it may even have been counter-productive, and have increased, rather than diminished, Amin's determination to attend the CHGM. (c) Much as they dislike the prospect of Amin attending the Meeting, the rest of the Commonwealth are not disposed to help us out. (d) The prospect of Amin's possible attendance remains grim. flEGHET /Possible