◆ SpookStack

43. (Continued) SEbitT— that this would lead to any change in Soviet policy toward Cuba. ‘The USSR would not consider that the US announce- ment created such a dangerous situation as to require it to reduce its support of Castro, Moreover, it would judge that, in political terms, it could ill afford to make any reduction at such a time. On the other hand, we do not believe that the announcement, or succeeding overflights, would cause the USSR to alter its Cuban policy in a direction which increased the provocation offered to the US, e.g., the provision of medium-range missile bases, In reacting publicly, the Soviets would probably reaffirm their commit- ment to Cuba's defense, though they would probably not make the commitment more specific or binding, 5. We think it unlikely that the Soviets would retaliate directly with any major moves against the Western position in Berlin. In confronting the Allies with local crises which raise the level of risk in Berlin, they generally prefer to choose a time when US opinion is not highly agitated over other East-West issues. While the announcement would 121