◆ SpookStack

Memo to Mr. White Re: HEARNAP 7-15200 _ These techniques are particularly well suited to problems which are complex, yet have known characteristics which can be measuredin _ quantitative terms. Before these techniques may be employed, three conditions must exist: { . ™~ . . : ¥ 4 1. The problem must be capable of being stated in the form of mathematical symbols 2. A set of equations, or "model, '' must be designed to include the various factors that should be taken into account and the relationship between them. 3. Quantitative data must be furnished for each of the variables and their weights. The Cryptanalysis Unit of the Laboratory employs model techniques for selecting attacks on encrypted messages. Much of the input data is not precisely quantifiable, hence numerical values are expressions of subjective judgments given estimated weights through use of such mathematical tools as Bayes' Theorem, Nearest our situation is war gaming as conducted by the military services. This carries operations research one additional step by including a changing environment which will be affected by our actions and reactions.. To explore the possible use of war gaming , techniques a Laboratory representative contacted Colonel Joseph Murphy, War Gaming Directorate, U.S. Army Concepts Analysis Agency, Bethesda, Maryland, who convened his top-level staff to explore our problem. - fa At erin SA Sh aaa Ba te pm t nag at Seri se eee Se oe gee aT: ST ee wee rE er nye St eS Se ae ee Fa a a SR eines ee ,