◆ SpookStack

67. (Continued) They would probably link Cuba with the Berlin situation and emphasize their patience and preference for negotiations, implying that Berlin was held hostage to US actions in Cuba. 12, There is some slight chance that a warning to Castro might make a difference, since the Soviets could regard this as a chance to stand aside, but it also would give time for offers to negotiate, continued buildup, and counterpressures, and we think the result in the end would be the same. 13. Any warning would of course degrade the element of surprise in @ subsequent US attack. - A US BLOCKADE 14, Two basic modes of blockade covld be considered: total and selective. We believe that even under a total blockade individual air- craft and submarines might get through to deliver vital military items, @egs, nuclear warheads, Even the most severe blockade would not deprive the Soviets of the use of missiles already in Cuba for a nuclear strike on the US. 15. Under any form of blockade, the Soviets would concentrate on political exploitation, especially in the UN. They might risk violent encounters in attempts to penetrate the blockade, but they would not re~ sort to major force in the area of Cuba or forceful retaliation elsewhere,