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64. (Continued) 7. Any warning would of course degrade the element of sur~ prise in a subsequent US attack. EFFECT OF BLOCKADE 8. While the effectiveness of Castro's military machine might be impaired by a total US blockade, Castro would be certain to tighten internal security and would take ruthless action against any attempts at revolt. ‘There is no reason to believe that a blockade of itself would bring down the Castro regimes. The Soviets would almost certainly exert strong direct pressures elsewhere to end the blockade. The attitudes of other states toward a blockade action are not considered in this paper. It is obvious that the Sovlets would heavily cxplolt all adverse reactions. 2 SOVIET REACTION TO USE OF MELITARY roe 9. If the US takes direct military action against Cuba, the Soviets would be placed automatically under great pressure to re~ spond in ways which, if they could not save Cuba, would inflict 1/ For a further comment on differences between reaction to a blockade and to US measures of force against Cuba, see Annex A.