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Tn Deen alae extremely low effectiveness. Within the next few months ; however, it is expected that Cuba will begin to take delivery of jet aircraft and will begin to have available trained Cuban pilots of known political reliability. During the sane period the effectiveness of grownd forces will be increasing and their knowledge of newly acquired Soviet -weapons will improve. Therefore, after some date probably no more than six months away it will become militarily infeasible to over- throw the Castro regime except through. the commd-tmert ‘to combat of a sizeable organized military Porce. -The option . of action by the Cuban opposition will no longer be open. 3. THE NATURE OF THE THREAT: Cuba will, of course, never present a direct military threat to the United States and it is unlikely that Cuba would attempt open invasion of any other latin American country since the U. S. could and almost certainly would ~ -enter the conflict on the side of the invaded country. Neverthe- less, as Castro further stabilizes his regime, obtains more sophisticated weapons » and further trains the militia, Cuba will provide an effective and solidly defended base for Soviet operations and expansion of influence in the Western Hemisphere. .Arms, money, organizational and other support can be provided from Cubs to dis- sident leaders and groups throughout Letin America in order to create political instability, encourage Commarism, weaken the