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32. (Continued; ee “) CLASSIFIED MESSAGE_ __: PAGE 3 CFaqe CRG: +) 7 - { FOUTING UNT = SOP rUrTrrtz D1) Tal ; 2 ee TO FROM: DIRECTOR DEFERRED TON? INFO : CUT 7ok80 TO INFO citeore = - 37228 -3- WILL CONTINUE TO DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE SOVIET ESTIMATE AS TO WHETHER THEY COULD BE INTRODUCED WITHOUT PROVOKING A US D. THE SOVIET UNION COULD DERIVE CONSIDERABLE MILITARY ADVANTAGE FROM THE FSTABLISHMENT OF SOVIET MEDIUM AND INTERMEDIATE RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES IN CUBA, OR FROM THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SOVIET SUBMARINE BASE THERE. AS BETWEEN - THESE TWO, THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SUB BASE COULD BE MORE LIKELY. EITHER DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, WOULD BE INCOMPATIBLE WITH SOVIET PRACTICE TO DATE AND WITH SOVIET POLICY AS WE PRESENTLY ESTIMATE IT. IT WOULD INDICATE A PAR GREATER WILLINGNESS TO INCREASE THE LEVEL OF RISK IN US-SOVIET RELATIONS THAN THE SOVIET UNION HAS DISPLAYED THUS FAR, AND CONSEQUENTLY WOULD HAVE IMPORTANT POLICY IMPLICATIONS With RESPECT TO OTHER AREAS AND OTHER PROBLEMS IN EAST-WEST RELATIONS. ‘ COORDINATING OFFICERS crocP 1 . a ENTICATING RELEASING OFFICER ; sot dhe Dead tT OFICER | REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHISITED. Copy No. 89